Info point 5: - EMISSIONS BUDGETS

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IPCC AR5 Final Publication September 2013

 

Three Carbon Emissions Budgets are pre-loaded in CBAT [Low, Medium, High].
Each can be chosen by clicking the named button on-screen top right.

The budget chosen appears in the charted area of CBAT Domain One.

 

FIRST KEY CHOICE - which 'Budget'?

The CBAT user's budget-choice is the first key 'policy-relevant-choice' with respect to any climate-policy based on the precautionary principle aimed at achieving UNFCCC-compliance.

CBAT is framed round three basic carbon-emissions contraction-budgets [2010 - 2100]: -

  1. LOW - with a 'path-integral' [total weight] of 197 Gt C [Gigatonnes Carbon]
  2. MEDIUM - with a 'path-integral' [total weight] of 395 Gt C [Gigatonnes Carbon]
  3. HIGH - with a 'path-integral' [total weight] of 593 Gt C [Gigatonnes Carbon]

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With the 'Vertical Slider' positioned at '0', around each of these budgets there are 40 positions:-

  1. upwards from 0 - plus 40 with increments of weight increase to = CAF 100 in 2110 and
  2. downwards from 0 - minus 40 with increments of weight decrease to = CAF 0 in 2110

that CBAT users can choose using the 'Vertical Slider'. The changing weights of these can be read on the clock on the Vertical Slider as this is moved upwards and downwards.

NOTE: -

In view of the dangers we face with the dangers of runaway effects and UNFCCC non-compliance, the GCI view is that anything heavier/higher/slower/later than the CBAT LOW Budget scenario [aiming at zero emissions globally by 2050], is running risks the costs of which we will be unable to pay.

The latest results from IPCC AR5 include 'carbon-budgeting' output that would appear to support that judgement.

 

SECOND KEY CHOICE - which 'Feedback'?

The user's second key choice relevant to developing an approach that is consistent with 'precautionary policy', is the feedback-type, Integrated or Segregated.

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Integrated-Feedback.

In CBAT this mimics the model used by UKMO to develop the UK Climate Act where significant feedback effects [eg melting permafrost] were omitted.

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Segregated-Feedback

This is the approach defined in CBAT where, despite the almost insuperable problems of 'measuring' these, the potential of such significant feedback effects is included.

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Some Support for the Classic C&C Concept over the years.