Emissions Budgets IPCC AR5

Info point 5a: - EMISSIONS BUDGETS IPCC AR5

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IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers Final Publication September 2013

In this SPM, IPCC AR5's 'carbon-budgeting' has 3 results each with 3 'probability-levels' for keeping within the '2 degrees Celsius' limit agreed at COP-15 in Copenhagen in 2009

The: -

First result effectively says, ‘halve the UKCA’.

Second result says, ‘reduce UKCA by up to a third.’

Third result [50% odds] effectively says, 'the UKCA is just fine.'

Using CBAT it is straightforward relating these results to the UKMO's UK Climate Act

Set on-screen UKCA [UK Climate Act] toggle-switch to 'ON' and use slider - also see below.
The emissions-budget [path-integral] of 395 Gt C 2010 - 2100 [in yellow] is the carbon-budget in the UKCA.

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FUTURE CARBON BUDGETS for KEEPING WITHIN 2°CELSIUS
HUGE ‘VARIATIONS’ IN FINAL Gt C RESULTS FROM IPCC AR5

IPCC AR5 Odds for
2° C

Cumulative 1800 to 'Future'

+ Non-CO2 Forcings in RCP 2.6

Emitted
Already
[Contentious]

Final
Residual Balance

UKCA 395 GtC Reduce UKCA
by . . .

33%

1,560 Gt C

880 Gt C

616 Gt C

264 Gt C

131 Gt C

50%

1,210 Gt C

840 Gt C

616 Gt C

224 Gt C

171 Gt C

66%

1,000 Gt C

800 Gt C

616 Gt C

184 Gt C

211 Gt C

IPCC AR5 Odds for
2° C

Cumulative 1800 to 'Future'

+ Non-CO2 Forcings in RCP 2.6

Emitted
Already
[Contentious]

Final
Residual Balance

UKCA 395 GtC Reduce UKCA
by . . .

33%

1,560 Gt C

880 Gt C

531 Gt C

349 Gt C

46 Gt C

50%

1,210 Gt C

840 Gt C

531 Gt C

309 Gt C

86 Gt C

66%

1,000 Gt C

800 Gt C

531 Gt C

269 Gt C

126 Gt C

IPCC AR5 Odds for
2° C

Cumulative 1800 to 'Future'

+ Non-CO2 Forcings in RCP 2.6

Emitted
Already
[Contentious]

Final
Residual Balance

UKCA 395 GtC Reduce UKCA
by . . .

33%

1,560 Gt C

880 Gt C

446 Gt C

434 Gt C

-39 Gt C

50%

1,210 Gt C

840 Gt C

446 Gt C

394 Gt C

1 Gt C

66%

1,000 Gt C

800 Gt C

446 Gt C

354 Gt C

41 Gt C

IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers Final Publication included data projections for these 'future-carbon-emissions-budgets'

However, all these results omit the influence of key feedbacks as AR5 itself acknowledges.

Despite these omissions, the UKMO will perhaps see this as a vindication of the UK Climate Act. On the other hand it could be seen as vindicating the position of those like Jim Hansen who told the UK Environmental Audit Committee Enquiry into the UKCA recently that it is "too weak".

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CBAT Graphic User Interface [GUI]
DOMAIN ONE animation fully working
DOMAIN TWO animation partially working so far

Mouse-touch-click each little DOMAIN PANEL in LEFT-HAND margin to
'SWAP' to CENTRE-SCREEN position & see how full animation will work

When Domain Two is fully operational, it will look like this: -

. . . where both the: -

Vertical Slider ['y' axis] for Domain One and the

Horzontal Slider ['x' axis] for Domain Two and the

Table of values for Domain Two shown in the image above

. . . will be adjusting to read any Domain One/Domain Two combination chosen by the user.
That means that for any relevant rate of Contraction with any rate of Convergence arising . . .

. . . . CBAT will calculate instantly and show from any of the: -

Three Carbon Budgets, [three buttons LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, top right] multiplied by

80 positions each [from +40 to -40 - VERTICAL SLIDER] multiplied by

Any convergence start-date [2010-2110 - HORIZONTAL SLIDER] multiplied by

Any convergence end-date [2010-2110 or 100 years] [HORIZONTAL SLIDER]

. . . giving 2.4 million 'C&C' Carbon-Budget options, where 'Contraction' and 'Convergence' totals 'commute' [are the same].

This means in turn that the 'Budget-Total-Clock' on Vertical Slider and the 'Budget-Table-Total' will always show the same quantity of tonnes of carbon in the same path-integrals [shape and weight of budgets in Gt C], no matter which user-positions the SLIDERS are pushed to.

Basically this establishes that the 'numeraire' [unit of measurement] is the tonne of carbon, before it embraces the derivative dollars-per-tonne ['carbon-pricing'] arising in Domains Three and Four.

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Some Responses to CBAT so far

Some Support for the Classic C&C Concept over the years.

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