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C&C is now embedded in Domain Two of the Carbon Budget Accounting Tool (CBAT).
It is the sum of a 25 year effort by GCI to respond to the threats of changing climate in a structured, precautionary & preventive way.Throughout this time, the well-supported founding statement (GCI 1991) has governed that effort, affirming it as a 'precautionary' issue of 'equity & survival'.
The manifestation of this effort as the C&C proposal reflected what became the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the: -
- objective (of Safe & Stable Greenhouse Gas concentration in the future Global Atmopshere) &
- principles (of Precaution and Equity)
as in the UNFCCC signed at the UNCED in Rio 1992.
Between 1992-1995, during which period Governments signed & ratified the UNFCCC, it's 'objective' or legally-binding goal has been to achieve
a safe & stable Greenhouse Gas concentration average in the future global atmopshere. UNFCCC-Compliance is achieving that objective.In this emerging process, C&C was: -
- first presented as "The Unequal Use of the Global Commons" to IPCC Working Group Three in its Second Assessment Report in 1994;
- laid at the first Conference of the Parties (COP-1) to the UNFCCC in 1995, where the Indian Government supported it;
- laid out at COP-2 in 1996 in much more detail, where the model was well received by many Government delegations and also by GLOBE International
- central to the negotiations COP-3 in 1997, very much as a result of this now iconic C&C image which led to
- This C&C Manifesto-Article being being printed on day one of COP-4 on the front page of the conference newspaper published by the host Government of Argentina.
- This core advice being submitted to IPCC preparations for the Third Assessment Report (Guesswork or Framework) which led to this result
- and the Chairman of COP-6 (Jan Pronk) advocating C&C to delegates.
After further years, the continued effort resulted in the: -
- ever growing support for the C&C proposition
- a result where the UNFCCC Executive said at COP-8 in 2002 that C&C was, "inevitably required for compliance"
- gathering of numerous citations awards & nominations
- the OECD/IEA naming it in 2004 as GCI's, "famous Contraction and Convergence proposal"
- The UK Climate Act of 2008 being clearly based on C&C
- & now finally GCI presenting it as what it has always in reality been, 'CBAT', a Carbon Budget Accounting Tool.
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This short CBAT-narrative indicates why, for UNFCCC-Compliance & since 1999 C&C now CBAT has existed as four heads of argument or the 'Four CBAT Domains which are: -
- Global Emissions Contraction & Concentrations (the shrinking global emissions-budget) with
- International Emissions Contraction & Convergence (the sharing of the global-emissions-budget) indexed to
- Conversion to the Rainbow of Renewable Energy Alternatives at replacement rates indexed to
- Future Economic Growth rates, Climate Damage Rates & Growth net of these Damage Rates.
CBAT integrates & animates these as four interdependent views of the same overall 'future-event-potential' that does (or doesn't) achieve UNFCCC-Compliance.
As such, it is the culmination of the integrated trend-analysis here first published in 2000 by Greenbooks "C&C - the Global Solution to Climate Change"
Recognizing that time-dependent quantified analysis is impossible without a path-intgegral reference, CBAT starts with: -
- the default of a carbon-budget exactly equal to than in the UK Climate Act (395 Gt C 2010 - 2110) leading to . . .
- quantified analysis & prognosis that *measures inter-actively the inter-dependent rates of change* relevant to UNFCCC-Compliance.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Functionality (cause & effect) originate with Stringularity giving rise to what cosmologist Stephen Hawking calls the first law of theoretical physics & the Pythagorean Comma.
From this, all musicians learn to play in-time & in-tune, and constant practice & dispassion are the simple secret that helps one on that journey.
Aspiration & argument may help, but the first law of Nature being imutable, the inescapable analogy is that, You learn the violin, as it does not learn you
Similarly, it is now not so much evolution (where we came from) as the goal-focus of 'evolition' (determining how to go where we need to go) that counts now.CBAT is an intelligently designed framework for counting that can help goal-focused practice (well, that is my hope and it has been for the last 25 years) . . . .
User-interactive animation of CBAT is key to showing and sharing how this proposal works in relation to the UNFCCC objective.
It has been animated by craft-encoders Jonathan Zvesper and Dan Wheatley and was finished on December 5th 2014.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Through GCT CBAT development has been generously supported by the Boar and the Spiral.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Petra Kelly was one of the founders of the German Green Party more than 30 years ago. In her, for that time, truly visionary words, "Greens are Neither Left nor Right, but out in front". As the UNFCCC-compliance C&C articulates is 'ahead', its steady adoption by all including from both left & right thirty years on bears witness to the truth she spoke.
