Water from the 'tap' [like our 'Green-House-Gas' or GHG emissions] flowing into . . '
the 'bath' [like the global atmosphere], raises the level of the bath-water [like the rate of atmosphere GHG accumulation/concentration] . . . but, the 'bath' is also drained by . . . the 'plug-hole' [like the natural 'sinks for GHG' . . . [affecting/slowing the rate of atmospheric GHG accumulation].
To stop the bath over-flowing, the tap must turned off in the knowledge that the bath level will continue to rise while the tap is being turned off. This is true for emissions, once the need for UNFCCC-compliance in the form of safe and stable future GHG concentrations in the atmosphere is accepted.
An assessment of 'Contraction & Concentrations'
and 'Contraction &
Convergence' and the C&C targets and modelling behind
'sink-efficiency' in the UK Government's 'Climate Act' .
The '50:50' odds the UK Government gave for avoiding a temperature rise
globally of more than two degrees with their emissions scenario are
in this context. They are linked the Government's wholly unsubstantiated claim that atmosphere concentrations will fall after 2050 even though we are projected as only halfway through a 100-year emissions 'contraction-event'.
A letter 8th June 2011 from many eminent persons
sent to the
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change about these matters ishere
Working draft of 'CBAT' - the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool [see here]
C&C in the context of COP-15 Copenhagen [12/2009]
with a view on what went wrong and what it takes to get it right. Presentation/Animation - Also for 'download and save' as an swffile for internet browsers or a self-executing [virus-free]Flash file for PCs.
Presentation/Animation - C&C in the context of IPCC AR4  and the so-called
reported quantitatively for the first time since IPCC FAR 1990.
Essentially, due to 'positive feedback' effects in the carbon cycle, where rising temperature
amplifies the rate at which atmospheric GHG concentration increases, accelerated rates of
carbon emissions contraction are needed to meet a given concentration outcome. This is
the increasingly crucial issue of changing rates of 'Sink-efficiency'.
In depth analysis of this
in relation to the UK Climate Act is here in thisEvidence to UK Environmental Audit Committee.
The rates for Contraction:Concentrations and Contraction:Convergence
are compared in thisAnimationas: -
Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3]
Rates of C&C
at four different theoretical rates of sink-failure.
Presentation/Animation that relates the arithmetic of emissions contraction to issues of: -
science, geo-technology, oil and gas depletion, growth and damages,
clean energy and implementation.
The arithmetic of emissions contraction relating to: -
Globalisation of Consciousness;
Climate Science, Rising Risks;
Trends of 'Expansion and Divergence';
'Contraction & Convergence';
'Syntax for Global Climate Policies';
Presentation/Animation and Notes
About future 'growth', you should ask an economist 'how long is a piece of string'.
He may tell you a witty Woody Allen one-liner about infinity being a really long time, 'especially towards the end';
[in other words he'll probably try and avoid the question].
If you ask a string-player how long is a piece of string, s/he'll give you a different answer.
exactly twice half its length' [giving the perfect octave]
exactly three time a third of its length [giving the perfect octave]
as in the audio-visually animatedimage above.
This Pythagorean 'stringularity' true because it has 'ontological structure'.