title

   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  1
 
 
 
 


Tap . . . Bath . . . Plug-hole: - Just an ANALOGY

Water from the 'tap' [like our 'Green-House-Gas' or GHG emissions] flowing into . . '
the 'bath' [like the global atmosphere], raises the level of the bath-water [like the rate of atmosphere GHG accumulation/concentration] . . . but, the 'bath' is also drained by . . . the 'plug-hole' [like the natural 'sinks for GHG' . . . [affecting/slowing the rate of atmospheric GHG accumulation].

A simple and familiar 'stock-flow' animated model for
GHG emissions:atmosphere-concentrations
.

To stop the bath over-flowing, the tap must turned off in the knowledge that the bath level will continue to rise while the tap is being turned off. This is true for emissions, once the need for UNFCCC-compliance in the form of safe and stable future GHG concentrations in the atmosphere is accepted.


An assessment of 'Contraction & Concentrations' and 'Contraction & Convergence' and the C&C targets and modelling behind rates of 'sink-efficiency' in the UK Government's 'Climate Act' [2008].
The '50:50' odds the UK Government gave for avoiding a temperature rise globally of more than two degrees with their emissions scenario are examined in this context. They are linked the Government's wholly unsubstantiated claim that atmosphere concentrations will fall after 2050 even though we are projected as only halfway through a 100-year emissions 'contraction-event'.

Presentation/Animation Download and save as a self-executing PC file here & Mac file here

A letter 8th June 2011 from many eminent persons sent to the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change about these matters is here

Working draft of 'CBAT' - the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool [see here]

Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

Get Adobe Flash player


C&C in the context of COP-15 Copenhagen [12/2009] with a view on what went wrong and what it takes to get it right.
Presentation/Animation - Also for 'download and save' as an
swf file for internet browsers or a self-executing [virus-free] Flash file for PCs.

Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

Get Adobe Flash player


Presentation/Animation - C&C in the context of IPCC AR4 [2007] and the so-called 'coupled-carbon-cycle' modelling reported quantitatively for the first time since IPCC FAR 1990. Essentially, due to 'positive feedback' effects in the carbon cycle, where rising temperature amplifies the rate at which atmospheric GHG concentration increases, accelerated rates of carbon emissions contraction are needed to meet a given concentration outcome. This is the increasingly crucial issue of changing rates of 'Sink-efficiency'.

In depth analysis of this in relation to the UK Climate Act is here in this Evidence to UK Environmental Audit Committee.

1
At the RIBA Summit Venice in 2006, acontext-overview of 'risk' as: - |
Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3], rates of C&C were animated
in this
Presentation/Animation and also animated here and this supports the short article at: -
Climate Action book 2007 C&C
which is discussed in more detail here: - C&C_Chapter_Levene_Book_.pdf

1
The rates for Contraction:Concentrations and Contraction:Convergence are compared in this Animation as: -
Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3]
Rates of C&C at four different theoretical rates of sink-failure.


1
Presentation/Animation [2002] that relates the arithmetic of emissions contraction to issues of: - convergence, climate- science, geo-technology, oil and gas depletion, growth and damages, clean energy and implementation.

1
The arithmetic of emissions contraction relating to: -
Globalisation of Consciousness;
Climate Science, Rising Risks;
Economic Fundamentals;
'Efficiency' Revisited;
Trends of 'Expansion and Divergence';
'Contraction & Convergence';
'Syntax for Global Climate Policies';
Presentation/Animation and Notes


About future 'growth', you should ask an economist 'how long is a piece of string'.
H
e may tell you a witty Woody Allen one-liner about infinity being a really long time, 'especially towards the end'; [in other words he'll probably try and avoid the question].

If you ask a string-player how long is a piece of string, s/he'll give you a different answer.
S/he'll say: -

  1. exactly twice half its length' [giving the perfect octave]
  2. exactly three time a third of its length [giving the perfect octave]

as in the audio-visually animated image above.
This Pythagorean 'stringularity' true because it has 'ontological structure'.

Pythagorean Orbital Pattern for Sun:Earth:Venus.

4 Heads of Argument for Economic Analysis
Key - Damages are going at twice the rate of Growth
'mouse-click' in animation & press right-left arrows to advance the image.

Contration & Concentrations

Contraction & Convergence

Contraction & Conversion

Contraction & Damages

 

 

 

 

UNFCCC C&C Submission - Support for Submission - CBAT - Responses to CBAT